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Since 1996, Watson Technical Consulting (WTC), Kinetic Analysis Corporation (which was spun off from WTC in 2001), and partners including the University of Central Florida Department of Statistics have conducted numerous joint investigations in the fields of hurricane damage prediction and mitigation. Projects include the development of hazard maps to support local mitigation strategies for the State of Florida, the development of hazard data for the Caribbean under the sponsorship of the Organization of American States, and research on hurricane damage models used in the insurance industry for the North Carolina Dept. of Insurance.
Hurricane, Extreme Rainfall, and Seismic Damage Modeling in the Caribbean. This project, for the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, is developing financial impact and loss estimation for the Caribbean to enable the region to better insure against disasters. An innovative aspect of this project is the integration of hurricane and seismic hazards in to a coherent loss prediction methodology.
Assessment of Computer Models used for Hurricane Insurance. Computer models are a critical part of setting insurance rates for homeowners. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Prediction Methodology has contracted with KAC/UCF to analyze the range of losses computed by typical modeling methods and to report on ways of better regulating and improving these models.
Potential impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Damage Frequency. Can the state of art computer climate models accurately predict how often damaging hurricanes make landfall? Will changes brought about by increased CO2 levels cause shifts in hurricane damage? These and other questions are being probed by our work integrating hurricane models and climate models, sponsored in part by the State of Florida.
Hurricane Damage Modeling and Visualization. This project is working to develop better ways of forecasting and presenting hurricane damage estimates. We operate a real time damage prediction and tracking system for hurricanes and typhoons around the world that, unlike official forecasts that only update every six hours, updates hourly. An interactive on-line mapping is available showing numerous hurricane track models, wind, wave, and storm surge forecasts, structure damage predictions, potential for power outages, and a unique "perceived effects" map indicating what conditions may be like during the worst of the storm in easy to understand terms such as "Branches breaking", "Moderate Structure Damage", or "Scattered Power Outages". Click here to enter the real time tropical cyclone tracking site.
Researchers:
Mr. Chuck Watson, Director of Research and Development for Kinetic Analysis
Corporation, develops and runs hurricane damage models such as the TAOS system.
Dr. Mark Johnson, Professor of Statistics at the University of Central Florida,
has developed approaches for estimating the probability of hurricane winds for
both long-term and real time applications.
For more information:
Related Project Pages
Funding Agencies and Sponsors
Notes/Disclaimers:
This site is supported by Watson Technical Consulting to showcase hurricane related research in cooperation with Dr. Mark Johnson of the UCF Dept. of Statistics. This work is funded by the Florida State Board of Administration, the Florida Department of Community Affairs, and various other public and private sector projects. Any opinions expressed here probably do not reflect the opinions of the sponsoring agencies.
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