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Hurricane Damage Forecasting Project

Note: for great discussions of this event and the potential impacts onnn the world oil and gas markets,
check out The Oil Drum.

I'm freezing the damage estimates as of 5pm ET 6 June. These are the immediate post-storm estimates with no optimization or analysis, warts and all!

Detailed maps and data for Cyclone Gonu

Latest forecast track and position fixes 5pm ET 6 June

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Industrial Facility Damage Forecast

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Storm Surge Forecast

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Damage Forecast for key Omani Oil/Gas Facilities (5pm ET 6 June):
Based on satellite estimates of infrastructure, and assumes US construction standards with minimal coastal protection (in other words, assumes significant wave damage). Estimates with either lower wave damage or better coastal protection are approximately 5 days cleanup/restart time.
Port Name Country Port Size Code Max Wind Damage
QALHAT LNG TERMINAL MU M 19.5m/s ( 37.7kts) Light
MINA QABUS MU V 23.2m/s ( 45.0kts) Light
MINA AL FAHL MU V 22.3m/s ( 43.3kts) Light
BANDAR ABBAS (OLD) IR M 10.5m/s ( 20.3kts) Minimal
JAZIREH YE HORMOS IR V 14.2m/s ( 27.5kts) Minimal
JASK IR V 26.0m/s ( 50.4kts) Light

Contacts:

News media may contact Chuck Watson cwatson@methaz.com for further information on these forecasts.

Oil and Natural Gas Supply Forecasts

For the oil and gas installations in the US part of the Gulf of Mexico and on the US mainland, KAC forecasts the shortfall in oil and gas supply from the impact these installations may suffer from an approaching storm. This forecast is based on a estimates for shut-in percentages and duration for off-shore platforms due to weather conditions and/or damage, as well as damage and restoration times for underwater pipelines, ports, terminals and refineries. 

This KAC product is available under the name SupplyCastTM through DTN/Meteorlogix. A detailed description of SupplyCast is available at http://www.meteorlogix.com/industry/utilities.cfm. To order SupplyCast, visit www.dtn.com/promo/supplycast or contact DTN/Meteorlogix at teamsales@dtn.com or (888) 621 4311.

For commercial forecasts for infrastructure outside the US, such as the Persian Gulf, Asia, and elsewhere, more information and contact info is located here.

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