EP132023 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

OFCL Forecast Consistency Evaluation

Forecast	Index	Consistency
24hr	0.59	Good

Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation

Forecast

Index

Consistency

Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast. If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent. Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair, and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor. Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!

National Level Economic Impact Forecast

name	totloss

type	loss
Total Forecast Impact:

National Level Population Impact Forecast

country_name	pop_tswind	pop_huwind	pop_surge

name	pop_tswind	pop_huwind	pop_surge
Total:

Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!

Model Performance Summary

tech	err012	err024	err048	err072	err096	err120	trend
AEMN	66	72	95	125	105	131	INCREASING
AVNO	88	87	93	100	35	153	INCREASING
CEMN	63	64	79	99	74	152	INCREASING
CLP5	63	100	179	175	162	253	INCREASING
CMC	60	75	91	101	88	87	INCREASING
EGRR	38	50	64	72	-1	-1	INCREASING
HMON	43	58	99	164	184	-1	INCREASING
HURN	47	95	232	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING
HWRF	62	67	110	186	198	-1	INCREASING
NVGM	56	67	81	87	173	-1	INCREASING
OFCL	36	52	64	66	-1	-1	INCREASING
RYOC	36	61	55	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING
TABD	57	99	153	227	155	259	INCREASING
TABM	53	87	125	163	171	397	INCREASING
TABS	51	73	94	147	302	679	INCREASING
TVCE	44	55	66	69	108	-1	CONSTANT
TVCN	43	52	67	71	104	-1	INCREASING
UKM	37	52	66	72	-1	-1	INCREASING
XTRP	69	121	239	321	439	505	INCREASING

(19 rows)

Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast