Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview
OFCL Forecast Consistency Evaluation
Forecast
Index
Consistency
24hr
0.59
Good
Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation
Forecast
Index
Consistency
Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast.
If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent.
Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair,
and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor.
Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight.
A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!
National Level Economic Impact Forecast
name
totloss
type
loss
Total Forecast Impact:
National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name
pop_tswind
pop_huwind
pop_surge
name
pop_tswind
pop_huwind
pop_surge
Total:
Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts.
Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.
Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the
European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model
The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech
err012
err024
err048
err072
err096
err120
trend
AEMN
66
72
95
125
105
131
INCREASING
AVNO
88
87
93
100
35
153
INCREASING
CEMN
63
64
79
99
74
152
INCREASING
CLP5
63
100
179
175
162
253
INCREASING
CMC
60
75
91
101
88
87
INCREASING
EGRR
38
50
64
72
-1
-1
INCREASING
HMON
43
58
99
164
184
-1
INCREASING
HURN
47
95
232
-1
-1
-1
INCREASING
HWRF
62
67
110
186
198
-1
INCREASING
NVGM
56
67
81
87
173
-1
INCREASING
OFCL
36
52
64
66
-1
-1
INCREASING
RYOC
36
61
55
-1
-1
-1
INCREASING
TABD
57
99
153
227
155
259
INCREASING
TABM
53
87
125
163
171
397
INCREASING
TABS
51
73
94
147
302
679
INCREASING
TVCE
44
55
66
69
108
-1
CONSTANT
TVCN
43
52
67
71
104
-1
INCREASING
UKM
37
52
66
72
-1
-1
INCREASING
XTRP
69
121
239
321
439
505
INCREASING
(19 rows)
Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable. Intensity Forecast Report generated by proxima.methaz.org at Fri 22 Sep 2023 15:12:51 UTC
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