EP132023 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview
OFCL Forecast Consistency Evaluation
ForecastIndexConsistency
24hr 0.59Good
Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation
ForecastIndexConsistency

Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast. If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent. Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair, and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor. Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!


National Level Economic Impact Forecast
name totloss

type loss
Total Forecast Impact:  

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:      


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 66 72 95 125 105 131 INCREASING
AVNO 88 87 93 100 35 153 INCREASING
CEMN 63 64 79 99 74 152 INCREASING
CLP5 63 100 179 175 162 253 INCREASING
CMC 60 75 91 101 88 87 INCREASING
EGRR 38 50 64 72 -1 -1 INCREASING
HMON 43 58 99 164 184 -1 INCREASING
HURN 47 95 232 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
HWRF 62 67 110 186 198 -1 INCREASING
NVGM 56 67 81 87 173 -1 INCREASING
OFCL 36 52 64 66 -1 -1 INCREASING
RYOC 36 61 55 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABD 57 99 153 227 155 259 INCREASING
TABM 53 87 125 163 171 397 INCREASING
TABS 51 73 94 147 302 679 INCREASING
TVCE 44 55 66 69 108 -1 CONSTANT
TVCN 43 52 67 71 104 -1 INCREASING
UKM 37 52 66 72 -1 -1 INCREASING
XTRP 69 121 239 321 439 505 INCREASING

(19 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by proxima.methaz.org at Fri 22 Sep 2023 15:12:51 UTC
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