WP132024 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

JTWC Forecast Consistency Evaluation

Forecast

Index

Consistency

Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation

Forecast

Index

Consistency

Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast. If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent. Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair, and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor. Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!

National Level Economic Impact Forecast

name	totloss

type	loss
Total Forecast Impact:

National Level Population Impact Forecast

country_name	pop_tswind	pop_huwind	pop_surge

name	pop_tswind	pop_huwind	pop_surge
Total:

Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!

Model Performance Summary

tech	err012	err024	err048	err072	err096	err120	trend
AEMN	43	56	83	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING
AVNO	36	42	54	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING
CEMN	24	37	87	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING
CMC	18	21	48	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING
JMAE	36	52	-1	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING
JTWC	28	38	55	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING
NVGM	67	38	71	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING
RJTD	45	60	-1	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING
UKM	28	31	64	-1	-1	-1	INCREASING

(9 rows)

Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast